Heat vs Warriors Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors · Thu, Nov 5, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 5, 2026 prediction: Golden State Warriors over the Heat by 1.2 points, a 54% win probability, with a projected final of Heat 115, Warriors 116 (total 230.8).

The model projects Golden State Warriors to win by 1.2 points (54% win probability), projected score GSW 116, MIA 115, total 230.8 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (3.2 points toward GSW).

Matchup

Miami Heat rank 15 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (0.0 points against an average opponent, about 40 projected wins in 2026-27); Golden State Warriors rank 22 (−2.7, about 33 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.7 points to Miami Heat; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.2-point margin above. A 54% win probability means Golden State Warriors should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (GSW margin)
• Player box-score production: −1.0 (GSW margin)
• Player on-court impact: −1.0 (GSW margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.7 (GSW margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +3.2 (GSW margin)

Rest and travel

MIA: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 348 miles of travel. GSW: 2 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

MIA: Davion Mitchell 32, Bam Adebayo 30, Giannis Antetokounmpo 28, Pelle Larsson 28, Andrew Wiggins 24, Bobby Portis 24, Klay Thompson 21, Tim Hardaway Jr. 19, Nikola Jovic 14.

GSW: Yaxel Lendeborg 31, Gui Santos 23, De'Anthony Melton 22, Brandin Podziemski 20, Georges Niang 19, Brandon Williams 17, Will Richard 17, Draymond Green 17, Stephen Curry 16.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 5, 2026 · Golden State Warriors · Miami Heat · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.