Jazz vs Rockets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets · Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play

HoopVantage's Nov 13, 2026 prediction: Houston Rockets over the Jazz by 11.4 points, a 83% win probability, with a projected final of Jazz 108, Rockets 120 (total 228.1).

The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 11.4 points (83% win probability), projected score HOU 120, UTA 108, total 228.1 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.1 points toward HOU).

Matchup

Utah Jazz rank 26 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.3 points against an average opponent, about 28 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 4 (+4.6, about 53 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 8.9 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 11.4-point margin above. A 83% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (HOU margin)
• Player box-score production: +2.9 (HOU margin)
• Player on-court impact: +4.1 (HOU margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +2.0 (HOU margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.7 (HOU margin)

Rest and travel

UTA: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 1,201 miles of travel. HOU: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

UTA: Keyonte George 26, Jaxson Hayes 25, Ace Bailey 24, Darryn Peterson 22, Lauri Markkanen 21, Mo Bamba 20, Jaren Jackson Jr. 19, Brice Sensabaugh 18, Isaiah Collier 16.

HOU: Amen Thompson 30, Jabari Smith Jr. 29, Kevin Durant 29, Fred VanVleet 27, Alperen Sengun 22, Tari Eason 21, Reed Sheppard 21, Oscar Tshiebwe 17, Bogdan Bogdanovic 12.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 13, 2026 · Houston Rockets · Utah Jazz · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.