Lakers vs Bucks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 11, 2026 prediction: Los Angeles Lakers over the Bucks by 7.1 points, a 72% win probability, with a projected final of Lakers 119, Bucks 112 (total 230.1).
The model projects Los Angeles Lakers to win by 7.1 points (72% win probability), projected score MIL 112, LAL 119, total 230.1 (80% range 207–254). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.3 points toward LAL).
Matchup
Los Angeles Lakers rank 10 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.2 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); Milwaukee Bucks rank 24 (−4.4, about 29 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.6 points to Los Angeles Lakers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.1-point margin above. A 72% win probability means Los Angeles Lakers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (MIL margin)
- Player box-score production: −3.3 (MIL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.9 (MIL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.4 (MIL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.1 (MIL margin)
Rest and travel
LAL: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 669 miles of travel. MIL: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 733 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
LAL: Austin Reaves 31, Luka Doncic 30, Walker Kessler 25, Ziaire Williams 24, Quentin Grimes 20, Matisse Thybulle 19, Sandro Mamukelashvili 19, Lawson Lovering 19, Collin Sexton 16.
MIL: Tyler Herro 29, Ryan Rollins 27, Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25, Kyle Kuzma 25, Myles Turner 22, Kasparas Jakucionis 21, AJ Green 18, Kel'el Ware 16, Ousmane Dieng 14.
Four factors
| LAL (2025-26) | MIL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 115.4 | 110.3 |
| DRtg | 113.7 | 116.5 |
| Pace | 100.7 | 99.9 |
| eFG% | 57.3% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 21.1% |
| FT rate | 0.320 | 0.223 |
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 55.8% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 11, 2026 · Milwaukee Bucks · Los Angeles Lakers · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.