Mavericks vs Cavaliers Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers · Sat, Nov 14, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 14, 2026 prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers over the Mavericks by 5.6 points, a 68% win probability, with a projected final of Mavericks 112, Cavaliers 117 (total 229.1).

The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 5.6 points (68% win probability), projected score CLE 117, DAL 112, total 229.1 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.1 points toward CLE).

Matchup

Dallas Mavericks rank 23 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.1 points against an average opponent, about 34 projected wins in 2026-27); Cleveland Cavaliers rank 8 (+3.4, about 48 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.5 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.6-point margin above. A 68% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (CLE margin)
• Player box-score production: +3.1 (CLE margin)
• Player on-court impact: +2.3 (CLE margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.0 (CLE margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: −1.6 (CLE margin)

Rest and travel

DAL: 1 day(s) of rest, 630 miles of travel. CLE: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 1,089 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

DAL: P.J. Washington 28, Cooper Flagg 27, Zaccharie Risacher 24, Kyrie Irving 23, Santi Aldama 23, Max Christie 21, Daniel Gafford 20, Caleb Martin 16, Marcus Sasser 14.

CLE: Evan Mobley 32, James Harden 31, Donovan Mitchell 31, Jarrett Allen 26, Peyton Watson 26, Sam Merrill 22, Mario Hezonja 21, Jaylon Tyson 18, Meleek Thomas 10.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 14, 2026 · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.