Mavericks vs Heat Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 26, 2026 prediction: Miami Heat over the Mavericks by 7.4 points, a 73% win probability, with a projected final of Mavericks 112, Heat 120 (total 231.5). Against the spread the model leans Mavericks +8.5: its margin is 1.1 points less favourable to Heat than the market's. On the total the model leans under 239.5 (projection 231.5).
The model projects Miami Heat to win by 7.4 points (73% win probability), projected score MIA 120, DAL 112, total 231.5 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.0 points toward MIA).
Matchup
Dallas Mavericks rank 29 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.8 points against an average opponent, about 27 projected wins in 2026-27); Miami Heat rank 15 (0.0, about 40 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.8 points to Miami Heat; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.4-point margin above. A 73% win probability means Miami Heat should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (MIA margin)
- Player box-score production: +3.0 (MIA margin)
- Player on-court impact: +1.9 (MIA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.0 (MIA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.9 (MIA margin)
Rest and travel
DAL: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 1,111 miles of travel. MIA: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 654 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
DAL: Zaccharie Risacher 33, P.J. Washington 33, Max Christie 26, Daniel Gafford 24, Cooper Flagg 24, Marcus Sasser 21, Sergio de Larrea 16, Morez Johnson Jr. 16, Kyrie Irving 15.
MIA: Davion Mitchell 32, Bam Adebayo 29, Giannis Antetokounmpo 28, Pelle Larsson 28, Andrew Wiggins 24, Bobby Portis 24, Klay Thompson 21, Tim Hardaway Jr. 19, Nikola Jovic 13.
Four factors
| DAL (2025-26) | MIA (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.6 | 113.8 |
| DRtg | 113.8 | 111.6 |
| Pace | 104.2 | 106.1 |
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 25.4% |
| FT rate | 0.287 | 0.268 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.0% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 26, 2026 · Miami Heat · Dallas Mavericks · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.