Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves · Thu, Nov 12, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 12, 2026 prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves over the Mavericks by 8.2 points, a 75% win probability, with a projected final of Mavericks 110, Timberwolves 119 (total 228.9).

The model projects Minnesota Timberwolves to win by 8.2 points (75% win probability), projected score MIN 119, DAL 110, total 228.9 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.3 points toward MIN).

Matchup

Dallas Mavericks rank 24 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−3.4 points against an average opponent, about 33 projected wins in 2026-27); Minnesota Timberwolves rank 11 (+2.6, about 46 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 6.0 points to Minnesota Timberwolves; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 8.2-point margin above. A 75% win probability means Minnesota Timberwolves should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (MIN margin)
• Player box-score production: +2.2 (MIN margin)
• Player on-court impact: +2.3 (MIN margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.5 (MIN margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.6 (MIN margin)

Rest and travel

DAL: 2 day(s) of rest, 863 miles of travel. MIN: 3 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

DAL: P.J. Washington 29, Cooper Flagg 26, Zaccharie Risacher 25, Santi Aldama 24, Max Christie 22, Kyrie Irving 22, Daniel Gafford 20, Marcus Sasser 17, Morez Johnson Jr. 13.

MIN: Jaden McDaniels 30, Ayo Dosunmu 29, Rudy Gobert 28, Jonathan Kuminga 27, LaMelo Ball 27, Terrence Shannon Jr. 24, Anthony Edwards 22, Trey Lyles 16, Joan Beringer 14.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 12, 2026 · Minnesota Timberwolves · Dallas Mavericks · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.