Nuggets vs Grizzlies Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies · Wed, Nov 11, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 11, 2026 prediction: Denver Nuggets over the Grizzlies by 3.6 points, a 62% win probability, with a projected final of Nuggets 116, Grizzlies 113 (total 229.1).

The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 3.6 points (62% win probability), projected score MEM 113, DEN 116, total 229.1 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player box-score production (2.4 points toward DEN).

Matchup

Denver Nuggets rank 8 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+2.6 points against an average opponent, about 47 projected wins in 2026-27); Memphis Grizzlies rank 22 (−2.2, about 36 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.8 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 3.6-point margin above. A 62% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (MEM margin)
• Player box-score production: −2.4 (MEM margin)
• Player on-court impact: −1.3 (MEM margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.0 (MEM margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +0.5 (MEM margin)

Rest and travel

DEN: 1 day(s) of rest, 484 miles of travel. MEM: 1 day(s) of rest, 817 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

DEN: Jamal Murray 33, Nikola Jokic 31, Christian Braun 30, Aaron Gordon 29, DeMar DeRozan 23, Trevon Brazile 19, Bryce Hopkins 16, Marvin Bagley III 12, Spencer Jones 11.

MEM: Ty Jerome 29, Cameron Boozer 27, Cedric Coward 25, Jaylen Wells 24, Jerami Grant 21, Zach Edey 17, Cam Spencer 17, Scotty Pippen Jr. 16, Jahmai Mashack 14.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 11, 2026 · Memphis Grizzlies · Denver Nuggets · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.