Nuggets vs Pelicans Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans · Sat, Nov 14, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 14, 2026 prediction: Denver Nuggets over the Pelicans by 5.8 points, a 69% win probability, with a projected final of Nuggets 118, Pelicans 112 (total 229.7).
The model projects Denver Nuggets to win by 5.8 points (69% win probability), projected score NOP 112, DEN 118, total 229.7 (80% range 206–253). The largest driver is player on-court impact (3.8 points toward DEN).
Matchup
Denver Nuggets rank 7 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.8 points against an average opponent, about 50 projected wins in 2026-27); New Orleans Pelicans rank 21 (−1.4, about 34 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.2 points to Denver Nuggets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.8-point margin above. A 69% win probability means Denver Nuggets should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (NOP margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.5 (NOP margin)
- Player on-court impact: −3.8 (NOP margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.8 (NOP margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.3 (NOP margin)
Rest and travel
DEN: 2 day(s) of rest, 359 miles of travel. NOP: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights.
Projected minutes
DEN: Jamal Murray 32, Christian Braun 30, Nikola Jokic 29, Aaron Gordon 29, Cameron Johnson 24, DeMar DeRozan 22, Trevon Brazile 21, Marvin Bagley III 13, Bryce Hopkins 9.
NOP: Trey Murphy III 29, Zion Williamson 28, Derik Queen 25, Jeremiah Fears 24, Saddiq Bey 23, Dejounte Murray 19, Herbert Jones 19, Bennedict Mathurin 17, Karlo Matkovic 14.
Four factors
| DEN (this season) | NOP (this season) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 111.7 | 110.2 |
| DRtg | 112.9 | 112.2 |
| Pace | 100 | 106.2 |
| eFG% | 54.7% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 22.8% |
| FT rate | 0.313 | 0.335 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 56.6% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 14, 2026 · New Orleans Pelicans · Denver Nuggets · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.