Suns vs Thunder Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder · Mon, Oct 26, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 26, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Suns by 7.9 points, a 74% win probability, with a projected final of Suns 109, Thunder 117 (total 226.4). Against the spread the model leans Suns +10.5: its margin is 2.6 points less favourable to Thunder than the market's. On the total the model leans over 220.5 (projection 226.4).
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 7.9 points (74% win probability), projected score OKC 117, PHX 109, total 226.4 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.1 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Phoenix Suns rank 18 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.5 points against an average opponent, about 38 projected wins in 2026-27); Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 (+7.0, about 60 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 8.5 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.9-point margin above. A 74% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (OKC margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.9 (OKC margin)
- Player on-court impact: +4.1 (OKC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.6 (OKC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.4 (OKC margin)
Rest and travel
PHX: 1 day(s) of rest, 840 miles of travel. OKC: second night of a back-to-back.
Projected minutes
PHX: Dillon Brooks 32, Miles Bridges 32, Devin Booker 29, Khaman Maluach 26, Jalen Green 23, Collin Gillespie 21, Luke Kennard 18, Jordan Goodwin 18, Ryan Dunn 13.
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 33, Chet Holmgren 27, Micah Peavy 25, Ajay Mitchell 23, Jalen Williams 21, Alex Caruso 21, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jared McCain 19, Cason Wallace 13.
Four factors
| PHX (2025-26) | OKC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 112.1 | 116 |
| DRtg | 110.6 | 105.1 |
| Pace | 100.1 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 53.7% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 22.3% |
| FT rate | 0.225 | 0.261 |
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.9% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 26, 2026 · Oklahoma City Thunder · Phoenix Suns · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.