Thunder vs Cavaliers Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers · Mon, Nov 2, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 2, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Cavaliers by 2.8 points, a 59% win probability, with a projected final of Thunder 115, Cavaliers 112 (total 226.5).

The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 2.8 points (59% win probability), projected score CLE 112, OKC 115, total 226.5 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.6 points toward OKC).

Matchup

Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+7.0 points against an average opponent, about 60 projected wins in 2026-27); Cleveland Cavaliers rank 7 (+3.0, about 49 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 4.0 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 2.8-point margin above. A 59% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (CLE margin)
• Player box-score production: −0.5 (CLE margin)
• Player on-court impact: −2.6 (CLE margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.0 (CLE margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (CLE margin)

Rest and travel

OKC: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,115 miles of travel. CLE: 1 day(s) of rest, 336 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Jalen Williams 27, Chet Holmgren 25, Micah Peavy 24, Ajay Mitchell 22, Alex Caruso 20, Isaiah Hartenstein 19, Jared McCain 18, Cason Wallace 16.

CLE: Evan Mobley 33, Donovan Mitchell 32, James Harden 31, Peyton Watson 27, Jarrett Allen 26, Mario Hezonja 23, Sam Merrill 20, Jaylon Tyson 18, Tyrese Proctor 8.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 2, 2026 · Cleveland Cavaliers · Oklahoma City Thunder · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.