Thunder vs Grizzlies Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies · Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play

HoopVantage's Nov 6, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Grizzlies by 8.1 points, a 75% win probability, with a projected final of Thunder 118, Grizzlies 110 (total 227.0).

The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 8.1 points (75% win probability), projected score MEM 110, OKC 118, total 227.0 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player box-score production (3.4 points toward OKC).

Matchup

Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+7.0 points against an average opponent, about 60 projected wins in 2026-27); Memphis Grizzlies rank 21 (−2.3, about 36 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 9.3 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 8.1-point margin above. A 75% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (MEM margin)
• Player box-score production: −3.4 (MEM margin)
• Player on-court impact: −3.4 (MEM margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −2.5 (MEM margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (MEM margin)

Rest and travel

OKC: 1 day(s) of rest, 421 miles of travel. MEM: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Jalen Williams 27, Chet Holmgren 25, Micah Peavy 24, Ajay Mitchell 22, Alex Caruso 20, Isaiah Hartenstein 19, Jared McCain 18, Cason Wallace 16.

MEM: Ty Jerome 30, Cameron Boozer 26, Cedric Coward 24, Jaylen Wells 24, Jerami Grant 20, Scotty Pippen Jr. 18, Cam Spencer 17, Quinten Post 16, Isaiah Stewart 15.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 6, 2026 · Memphis Grizzlies · Oklahoma City Thunder · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.