Thunder vs Mavericks Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks · Wed, Oct 28, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 28, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Mavericks by 12.8 points, a 86% win probability, with a projected final of Thunder 120, Mavericks 107 (total 226.4).
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 12.8 points (86% win probability), projected score DAL 107, OKC 120, total 226.4 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player box-score production (5.8 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+7.0 points against an average opponent, about 60 projected wins in 2026-27); Dallas Mavericks rank 29 (−5.8, about 27 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 12.8 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 12.8-point margin above. A 86% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (DAL margin)
- Player box-score production: −5.8 (DAL margin)
- Player on-court impact: −5.7 (DAL margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −2.7 (DAL margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.7 (DAL margin)
Rest and travel
OKC: 1 day(s) of rest, third game in four nights, 189 miles of travel. DAL: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,111 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 31, Chet Holmgren 26, Jalen Williams 26, Micah Peavy 23, Ajay Mitchell 22, Alex Caruso 20, Isaiah Hartenstein 20, Jared McCain 18, Cason Wallace 16.
DAL: Zaccharie Risacher 35, P.J. Washington 35, Daniel Gafford 29, Max Christie 28, Marcus Sasser 22, Sergio de Larrea 20, Morez Johnson Jr. 19, Moussa Cisse 15, Kyrie Irving 15.
Four factors
| OKC (2025-26) | DAL (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116 | 108.6 |
| DRtg | 105.1 | 113.8 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 104.2 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 23.2% |
| FT rate | 0.261 | 0.287 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.6% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 28, 2026 · Dallas Mavericks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.