Thunder vs Rockets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets · Sat, Oct 31, 2026
HoopVantage's Oct 31, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Rockets by 4.2 points, a 64% win probability, with a projected final of Thunder 114, Rockets 110 (total 224.7).
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 4.2 points (64% win probability), projected score HOU 110, OKC 114, total 224.7 (80% range 201–248). The largest driver is player on-court impact (1.6 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+7.0 points against an average opponent, about 60 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 6 (+3.5, about 52 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.5 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.2-point margin above. A 64% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (HOU margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.6 (HOU margin)
- Player on-court impact: −1.6 (HOU margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −1.4 (HOU margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.3 (HOU margin)
Rest and travel
OKC: 2 day(s) of rest, 227 miles of travel. HOU: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 227 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Jalen Williams 27, Chet Holmgren 25, Micah Peavy 24, Ajay Mitchell 22, Alex Caruso 20, Isaiah Hartenstein 19, Jared McCain 18, Cason Wallace 16.
HOU: Amen Thompson 32, Alperen Sengun 32, Kevin Durant 30, Jabari Smith Jr. 29, Reed Sheppard 22, Fred VanVleet 19, Tari Eason 18, Marcus Smart 15, Bogdan Bogdanovic 13.
Four factors
| OKC (2025-26) | HOU (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116 | 115.1 |
| DRtg | 105.1 | 109.9 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 99 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 34.8% |
| FT rate | 0.261 | 0.260 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.0% |
All NBA predictions for Oct 31, 2026 · Houston Rockets · Oklahoma City Thunder · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.