Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets · Wed, Nov 11, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 11, 2026 prediction: Houston Rockets over the Warriors by 7.3 points, a 73% win probability, with a projected final of Warriors 110, Rockets 117 (total 227.3).

The model projects Houston Rockets to win by 7.3 points (73% win probability), projected score HOU 117, GSW 110, total 227.3 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.7 points toward HOU).

Matchup

Golden State Warriors rank 18 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−1.3 points against an average opponent, about 37 projected wins in 2026-27); Houston Rockets rank 4 (+4.1, about 53 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 5.4 points to Houston Rockets; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 7.3-point margin above. A 73% win probability means Houston Rockets should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (HOU margin)
• Player box-score production: +1.8 (HOU margin)
• Player on-court impact: +2.7 (HOU margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +1.0 (HOU margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.2 (HOU margin)

Rest and travel

GSW: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,641 miles of travel. HOU: 1 day(s) of rest.

Projected minutes

GSW: Yaxel Lendeborg 28, Brandin Podziemski 27, Draymond Green 24, Al Horford 23, Stephen Curry 22, Gui Santos 22, De'Anthony Melton 18, Georges Niang 17, Brandon Williams 14.

HOU: Alperen Sengun 32, Amen Thompson 30, Jabari Smith Jr. 30, Kevin Durant 29, Fred VanVleet 27, Reed Sheppard 21, Tari Eason 20, Bogdan Bogdanovic 12, Oscar Tshiebwe 11.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 11, 2026 · Houston Rockets · Golden State Warriors · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.