Warriors vs Spurs Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs · Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play
HoopVantage's Nov 13, 2026 prediction: San Antonio Spurs over the Warriors by 10.2 points, a 80% win probability, with a projected final of Warriors 109, Spurs 119 (total 227.4). The model is within half a point of the market spread (SAS -10.5), so there is no meaningful lean against the number. On the total the model leans under 236.5 (projection 227.4).
The model projects San Antonio Spurs to win by 10.2 points (80% win probability), projected score SAS 119, GSW 109, total 227.4 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (4.2 points toward SAS).
Matchup
Golden State Warriors rank 16 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−0.4 points against an average opponent, about 39 projected wins in 2026-27); San Antonio Spurs rank 1 (+8.7, about 61 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 9.1 points to San Antonio Spurs; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 10.2-point margin above. A 80% win probability means San Antonio Spurs should win about 8 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (SAS margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.5 (SAS margin)
- Player on-court impact: +4.2 (SAS margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +2.4 (SAS margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.4 (SAS margin)
Rest and travel
GSW: 1 day(s) of rest, 186 miles of travel. SAS: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,050 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
GSW: Yaxel Lendeborg 31, Brandin Podziemski 28, Draymond Green 27, Stephen Curry 24, Al Horford 23, Georges Niang 19, De'Anthony Melton 18, Gui Santos 15, Brandon Williams 14.
SAS: Victor Wembanyama 28, Tobias Harris 28, Devin Vassell 27, Dylan Harper 27, De'Aaron Fox 27, Stephon Castle 26, Julian Champagnie 25, Keldon Johnson 19, Luke Kornet 13.
Four factors
| GSW (this season) | SAS (this season) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 114.3 | 111.6 |
| DRtg | 116.1 | 105.3 |
| Pace | 102.8 | 102.3 |
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 25.1% |
| FT rate | 0.332 | 0.225 |
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 53.1% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 13, 2026 · San Antonio Spurs · Golden State Warriors · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.