Wizards vs Pacers Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers · Wed, Nov 11, 2026

HoopVantage's Nov 11, 2026 prediction: Indiana Pacers over the Wizards by 5.2 points, a 67% win probability, with a projected final of Wizards 114, Pacers 119 (total 232.5).

The model projects Indiana Pacers to win by 5.2 points (67% win probability), projected score IND 119, WAS 114, total 232.5 (80% range 209–256). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.5 points toward IND).

Matchup

Washington Wizards rank 29 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−5.1 points against an average opponent, about 29 projected wins in 2026-27); Indiana Pacers rank 20 (−1.6, about 37 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.5 points to Indiana Pacers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 5.2-point margin above. A 67% win probability means Indiana Pacers should win about 7 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (IND margin)
• Player box-score production: +0.2 (IND margin)
• Player on-court impact: +2.5 (IND margin)
• Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +0.8 (IND margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.0 (IND margin)

Rest and travel

WAS: 1 day(s) of rest, 240 miles of travel. IND: 1 day(s) of rest, 764 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

WAS: Anthony Davis 34, Trae Young 34, Bilal Coulibaly 32, Kyshawn George 31, Bub Carrington 25, Alex Sarr 21, Khris Middleton 15, Deandre Ayton 13, AJ Dybantsa 11.

IND: Tyrese Haliburton 32, Kelly Oubre Jr. 25, Pascal Siakam 25, Aaron Nesmith 23, Andrew Nembhard 22, Quenton Jackson 21, Obi Toppin 18, Jarace Walker 17, Jay Huff 16.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 11, 2026 · Indiana Pacers · Washington Wizards · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.