Wizards vs Thunder Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder · Sat, Nov 7, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 7, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Wizards by 12.9 points, a 86% win probability, with a projected final of Wizards 108, Thunder 121 (total 228.8).
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 12.9 points (86% win probability), projected score OKC 121, WAS 108, total 228.8 (80% range 205–252). The largest driver is player on-court impact (6.5 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Washington Wizards rank 27 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (−4.9 points against an average opponent, about 30 projected wins in 2026-27); Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 (+7.0, about 60 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 11.9 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 12.9-point margin above. A 86% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 9 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (OKC margin)
- Player box-score production: +2.6 (OKC margin)
- Player on-court impact: +6.5 (OKC margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): +2.9 (OKC margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.2 (OKC margin)
Rest and travel
WAS: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 755 miles of travel. OKC: second night of a back-to-back, third game in four nights, 421 miles of travel.
Projected minutes
WAS: Trae Young 33, Anthony Davis 30, Kyshawn George 27, Bilal Coulibaly 25, Tre Johnson 22, Justin Champagnie 22, Alex Sarr 19, Bub Carrington 18, Deandre Ayton 13.
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 32, Jalen Williams 27, Chet Holmgren 25, Micah Peavy 24, Ajay Mitchell 22, Alex Caruso 20, Isaiah Hartenstein 19, Jared McCain 18, Cason Wallace 16.
Four factors
| WAS (2025-26) | OKC (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.1 | 116 |
| DRtg | 119.6 | 105.1 |
| Pace | 104 | 101.7 |
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 22.3% |
| FT rate | 0.235 | 0.261 |
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 51.9% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 7, 2026 · Oklahoma City Thunder · Washington Wizards · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.