NBA projections, advanced stats and win probabilities

HoopVantage projects every NBA game from the players expected to play: minutes × player impact, opponent-adjusted team efficiency, rest, travel and altitude. In a four-season walk-forward backtest the projected winner won 67.8% of 4,923 games with a Brier score of 0.207.

Next games (Tue, Oct 20, 2026)

• Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons — Tue, Oct 20, 2026: DET by 0.9 (53%), total 217.9
• Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks — Tue, Oct 20, 2026: NYK by 5.8 (69%), total 229.3
• Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs — Tue, Oct 20, 2026: SAS by 2.2 (57%), total 227.2

Top power ratings

1. San Antonio Spurs +8.8 (59.2 projected wins)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder +8.8 (58.6 projected wins)
3. New York Knicks +6.3 (53.4 projected wins)
4. Boston Celtics +5.1 (49.9 projected wins)
5. Cleveland Cavaliers +5.1 (50.4 projected wins)
6. Houston Rockets +4.2 (47.9 projected wins)
7. Toronto Raptors +4.2 (48.0 projected wins)
8. Detroit Pistons +3.9 (47.5 projected wins)
9. Denver Nuggets +3.6 (47.3 projected wins)
10. Philadelphia 76ers +2.7 (44.8 projected wins)

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.