Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction, Projected Score & Pick

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat · Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · NBA Cup - Group Play

HoopVantage's Nov 13, 2026 prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers over the Heat by 0.3 points, a 51% win probability, with a projected final of Cavaliers 116, Heat 116 (total 231.4).

The model projects Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 0.3 points (51% win probability), projected score MIA 116, CLE 116, total 231.4 (80% range 208–255). The largest driver is rest, travel & altitude (1.1 points toward MIA).

Matchup

Cleveland Cavaliers rank 7 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+3.4 points against an average opponent, about 48 projected wins in 2026-27); Miami Heat rank 15 (+1.3, about 42 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 2.1 points to Cleveland Cavaliers; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 0.3-point margin above. A 51% win probability means Cleveland Cavaliers should win about 5 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.

What drives the projection

• Home court: +0.6 (MIA margin)
• Player box-score production: −1.0 (MIA margin)
• Player on-court impact: −1.0 (MIA margin)
• Rest, travel & altitude: +1.1 (MIA margin)

Rest and travel

CLE: 1 day(s) of rest, 1,094 miles of travel. MIA: 2 day(s) of rest, 2,088 miles of travel.

Projected minutes

CLE: Evan Mobley 32, James Harden 31, Donovan Mitchell 31, Jarrett Allen 26, Peyton Watson 26, Sam Merrill 22, Mario Hezonja 21, Jaylon Tyson 18, Meleek Thomas 10.

MIA: Davion Mitchell 31, Giannis Antetokounmpo 30, Bam Adebayo 30, Pelle Larsson 28, Andrew Wiggins 26, Bobby Portis 23, Tim Hardaway Jr. 18, Klay Thompson 18, Nikola Jovic 12.

Four factors

All NBA predictions for Nov 13, 2026 · Miami Heat · Cleveland Cavaliers · Scorecard

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.