Pistons vs Heat Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat · Sat, Nov 14, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 14, 2026 prediction: Detroit Pistons over the Heat by 4.4 points, a 64% win probability, with a projected final of Pistons 116, Heat 112 (total 227.7).
The model projects Detroit Pistons to win by 4.4 points (64% win probability), projected score MIA 112, DET 116, total 227.7 (80% range 204–251). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.1 points toward DET).
Matchup
Detroit Pistons rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+5.4 points against an average opponent, about 55 projected wins in 2026-27); Miami Heat rank 13 (+1.9, about 44 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.5 points to Detroit Pistons; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 4.4-point margin above. A 64% win probability means Detroit Pistons should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (MIA margin)
- Player box-score production: −1.0 (MIA margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.1 (MIA margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.4 (MIA margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: −1.4 (MIA margin)
Rest and travel
DET: 1 day(s) of rest, 925 miles of travel. MIA: second night of a back-to-back.
Projected minutes
DET: Cade Cunningham 33, Duncan Robinson 27, Ausar Thompson 26, Paul Reed 24, John Collins 24, Daniss Jenkins 24, Kevin Huerter 19, Javonte Green 18, Ronald Holland II 14.
MIA: Davion Mitchell 31, Giannis Antetokounmpo 30, Bam Adebayo 29, Pelle Larsson 27, Andrew Wiggins 27, Bobby Portis 22, Klay Thompson 19, Tim Hardaway Jr. 17, Nikola Jovic 13.
Four factors
| DET (this season) | MIA (this season) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 108.9 | 111.3 |
| DRtg | 101 | 114.3 |
| Pace | 100.9 | 106.3 |
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 24.7% |
| FT rate | 0.289 | 0.273 |
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 56.7% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 14, 2026 · Miami Heat · Detroit Pistons · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.