Thunder vs Trail Blazers Prediction, Projected Score & Pick
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers · Wed, Nov 11, 2026
HoopVantage's Nov 11, 2026 prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder over the Trail Blazers by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability, with a projected final of Thunder 114, Trail Blazers 113 (total 226.5).
The model projects Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 1.5 points (55% win probability), projected score POR 113, OKC 114, total 226.5 (80% range 203–250). The largest driver is player on-court impact (2.1 points toward OKC).
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2 of 30 in the HoopVantage power rating (+4.9 points against an average opponent, about 56 projected wins in 2026-27); Portland Trail Blazers rank 12 (+1.8, about 46 wins). On a neutral floor that gap is worth 3.1 points to Oklahoma City Thunder; home court, rest, travel and the projected rotations move it to the 1.5-point margin above. A 55% win probability means Oklahoma City Thunder should win about 6 of 10 games like this one, so the other side winning is a normal outcome, not an upset of the model.
What drives the projection
- Home court: +0.6 (POR margin)
- Player box-score production: −0.2 (POR margin)
- Player on-court impact: −2.1 (POR margin)
- Team efficiency (opponent-adjusted): −0.7 (POR margin)
- Rest, travel & altitude: +0.8 (POR margin)
Rest and travel
OKC: second night of a back-to-back. POR: second night of a back-to-back.
Projected minutes
OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 33, Micah Peavy 27, Ajay Mitchell 25, Jared McCain 23, Isaiah Hartenstein 21, Alex Caruso 20, Josh Dix 19, Chet Holmgren 17, Aday Mara 13.
POR: Deni Avdija 28, Damian Lillard 27, Jrue Holiday 25, Ja Morant 25, Donovan Clingan 24, Toumani Camara 23, Sidy Cissoko 20, Robert Williams III 19, Scoot Henderson 19.
Four factors
| OKC (2025-26) | POR (2025-26) | |
|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 116 | 111 |
| DRtg | 105.1 | 111.3 |
| Pace | 101.7 | 103.6 |
| eFG% | 56.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 31.3% |
| FT rate | 0.261 | 0.280 |
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.1% |
All NBA predictions for Nov 11, 2026 · Portland Trail Blazers · Oklahoma City Thunder · Scorecard
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.