NBA projections, advanced stats and win probabilities

HoopVantage projects every NBA game from the players expected to play: minutes × player impact, opponent-adjusted team efficiency, rest, travel and altitude. In a four-season walk-forward backtest the projected winner won 67.4% of 4,923 games with a Brier score of 0.206.

Next games (Wed, Oct 28, 2026)

• Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: ATL by 2.9 (60%), total 231.2
• Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: CLE by 9.7 (79%), total 231.2
• Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: DET by 4.1 (63%), total 223.6
• Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: PHI by 4.6 (65%), total 230.3
• Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: TOR by 4.8 (65%), total 226.2
• New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: NYK by 6.6 (71%), total 229.0
• Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: HOU by 5.0 (66%), total 227.2
• Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: MIN by 4.4 (64%), total 227.9
• Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: DEN by 3.0 (60%), total 231.0
• San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: SAS by 11.2 (82%), total 230.0
• Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: OKC by 6.6 (71%), total 226.8
• Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers — Wed, Oct 28, 2026: LAC by 3.5 (62%), total 226.5

Top power ratings

1. San Antonio Spurs +7.6 (59.5 projected wins)
2. Oklahoma City Thunder +4.9 (55.6 projected wins)
3. New York Knicks +4.8 (51.9 projected wins)
4. Houston Rockets +4.1 (53.0 projected wins)
5. Detroit Pistons +3.8 (51.9 projected wins)
6. Boston Celtics +3.7 (50.8 projected wins)
7. Cleveland Cavaliers +2.8 (48.4 projected wins)
8. Denver Nuggets +2.6 (47.4 projected wins)
9. Toronto Raptors +2.5 (47.4 projected wins)
10. Los Angeles Lakers +2.2 (46.6 projected wins)

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. Nothing here guarantees any result.